Briefing on Taiwan's Presidential and Legislative Elections 2024

Executive summary

• The Republic of China (Taiwan) will hold presidential and legislative elections on the 13th of January 2024. The incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen will step down after reaching the constitutional limit of two consecutive four-year terms.

• The latest polls for the presidential elections give a narrow lead to Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, tactical voting could swing a victory for the leading opposition candidate – the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih. Polls project the Legislative Yuan to be under no overall control, with the KMT overtaking the DPP as the largest party.

• A DPP/Lai victory in the Presidential elections would likely see a continuation of President Tsai’s efforts to strengthen Taiwan’s role on the world stage, with a cautious pushing back against efforts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to isolate Taiwan. Both Tsai and Lai have asserted Taiwan’s separateness from the PRC while remaining ambiguous on questions of independence.

• A DPP/Lai victory would be met with hostility from Beijing, with the possibility of increased PRC military and economic coercion against Taiwan in the wake of the elections. The PRC has invested significantly in efforts to deter Taiwan’s voters from supporting Lai, with targeted military manoeuvres, economic coercion and a widespread propaganda and disinformation campaign.

• While a KMT/Hou victory would be more warmly welcomed in Beijing, Hou’s plans to build closer ties with the PRC will be restrained by an electorate that is increasingly wary of its neighbour. While Hou has stated his opposition to Taiwanese independence, he has also rejected the PRC’s proposed ‘one country, two systems’ model for Taiwan – posing a major roadblock to so-called ‘reunification’ with the mainland.