Mapping out the UK’s Response to Grey Zone Escalations against Taiwan
Executive summary
The government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is carrying out a range of grey zone activities to undermine Taiwan’s autonomy, wear down its defensive capabilities and pressure its people into unification with the PRC.
Grey zone activities allow the PRC to strengthen its position against Taiwan while minimising the risk of an international response. Recent examples include near-daily incursions of military aircraft past the median line, large-scale military drills and economic coercion.
This paper maps out a range of scenarios where the PRC could escalate grey zone activities against Taiwan. International policymakers must be prepared for a full range of scenarios, from incursions into Taiwan’s contiguous zone to a ‘quarantine’ of Taiwanese goods and occupation of outlying islands.
The UK has a clear strategic and economic interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Countering the PRC’s unilateral attempts to alter the status quo through grey zone tactics is essential to de-escalating the risk of conflict and is in line with the UK’s long-standing policy on the PRC and Taiwan.
This paper presents an anti-grey zone strategy that seeks to deter further escalations by taking proportionate, timely and effective responses to the PRC’s tactics, while also acting to strengthen long-term preparedness. This strategy consists of:
Raising the cost of the PRC’s grey zone tactics: By enacting a series of targeted sanctions on PRC military companies, diplomatic statements and proportionate engagements with Taiwan in response to grey zone activities, the UK and its allies can help shift the cost-benefit calculus for Beijing to deter further escalations.
Strengthening Taiwan’s resilience to grey zone activities: The UK can play an important role in supporting Taiwan’s energy resilience and cyber-security through dialogues and deepened trade partnerships, as well as supporting its bid to join the CPTPP.
Reaffirming the international rules-based order: The UK and its allies can reinforce the international rules, norms and institutions that underpin stability in the region by upholding freedom of navigation and countering the PRC’s attempts to exclude Taiwan from multilateral systems.